MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2425Lower is better
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate49.55%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate57.71%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.81%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.36%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6087Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2426Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2470Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate52.63%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches551Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 81-90 of 551 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
21-03-26England - ChampionshipSheffield United vs Wrexham1X2
Home41.48%
Away1-2
MISSMedium46/100
21-03-26England - ChampionshipQPR vs PortsmouthBTS
BTS Yes56.45%
BTS Yes6-1
HITLow28/100
21-03-26England - ChampionshipHull vs Sheffield Weds1X2
Home54.28%
Home3-1
HITHigh84/100
21-03-26England - ChampionshipCharlton vs Norwich1X2
Away42.90%
Away0-1
HITMedium55/100
21-03-26England - ChampionshipBristol City vs West Brom1X2
Home44.14%
Away0-1
MISSMedium55/100
21-03-26England - ChampionshipIpswich vs Millwall1X2
Home58.25%
Draw1-1
MISSHigh77/100
21-03-26England - ChampionshipDerby vs Birmingham1X2
Home51.06%
Home1-0
HITHigh78/100
21-03-26England - ChampionshipBlackburn vs Middlesbrough1X2
Away58.77%
Draw0-0
MISSHigh84/100
20-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionVillarreal vs Sociedad1X2
Home53.68%
Home3-1
HITHigh78/100
20-03-26Portugal - Liga IEstrela vs Casa Pia1X2
Draw44.20%
Home4-0
MISSMedium53/100
21-03-26England - Championship

Sheffield United vs Wrexham

1X2
PredictedHome41.48%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium46/100
21-03-26England - Championship

QPR vs Portsmouth

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes56.45%
ActualBTS Yes6-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow28/100
21-03-26England - Championship

Hull vs Sheffield Weds

1X2
PredictedHome54.28%
ActualHome3-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh84/100
21-03-26England - Championship

Charlton vs Norwich

1X2
PredictedAway42.90%
ActualAway0-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceMedium55/100
21-03-26England - Championship

Bristol City vs West Brom

1X2
PredictedHome44.14%
ActualAway0-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium55/100
21-03-26England - Championship

Ipswich vs Millwall

1X2
PredictedHome58.25%
ActualDraw1-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh77/100
21-03-26England - Championship

Derby vs Birmingham

1X2
PredictedHome51.06%
ActualHome1-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh78/100
21-03-26England - Championship

Blackburn vs Middlesbrough

1X2
PredictedAway58.77%
ActualDraw0-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh84/100
20-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Villarreal vs Sociedad

1X2
PredictedHome53.68%
ActualHome3-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh78/100
20-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Estrela vs Casa Pia

1X2
PredictedDraw44.20%
ActualHome4-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium53/100
Showing 81-90 of 551 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.