MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2425Lower is better
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate49.55%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate57.71%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.81%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.36%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6087Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2426Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2470Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate52.63%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches551Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 441-450 of 551 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
25-02-26England - ChampionshipSheffield United vs Coventry1X2
Home50.18%
Away1-2
MISSHigh79/100
25-02-26England - ChampionshipNorwich vs Sheffield Weds1X2
Home65.76%
Home2-0
HITHigh83/100
25-02-26England - ChampionshipMillwall vs Birmingham1X2
Home51.37%
Home3-0
HITHigh76/100
24-02-26Scotland - Premier LeagueDundee United vs AberdeenO/U 2.5
Under 2.566.15%
Under 2.50-0
HITLow23/100
24-02-26England - ChampionshipSouthampton vs QPR1X2
Home57.72%
Home5-0
HITHigh78/100
24-02-26England - ChampionshipWrexham vs PortsmouthO/U 2.5
Over 2.569.07%
Over 2.52-1
HITHigh75/100
24-02-26England - ChampionshipWest Brom vs CharltonBTS
BTS No61.46%
BTS Yes1-1
MISSMedium54/100
24-02-26England - ChampionshipWatford vs IpswichBTS
BTS Yes55.40%
BTS No0-2
MISSMedium54/100
24-02-26England - ChampionshipSwansea vs Preston1X2
Home51.11%
Draw1-1
MISSHigh76/100
24-02-26England - ChampionshipMiddlesbrough vs Leicester1X2
Home57.78%
Draw1-1
MISSHigh85/100
25-02-26England - Championship

Sheffield United vs Coventry

1X2
PredictedHome50.18%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh79/100
25-02-26England - Championship

Norwich vs Sheffield Weds

1X2
PredictedHome65.76%
ActualHome2-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh83/100
25-02-26England - Championship

Millwall vs Birmingham

1X2
PredictedHome51.37%
ActualHome3-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh76/100
24-02-26Scotland - Premier League

Dundee United vs Aberdeen

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.566.15%
ActualUnder 2.50-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow23/100
24-02-26England - Championship

Southampton vs QPR

1X2
PredictedHome57.72%
ActualHome5-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh78/100
24-02-26England - Championship

Wrexham vs Portsmouth

O/U 2.5
PredictedOver 2.569.07%
ActualOver 2.52-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh75/100
24-02-26England - Championship

West Brom vs Charlton

BTS
PredictedBTS No61.46%
ActualBTS Yes1-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium54/100
24-02-26England - Championship

Watford vs Ipswich

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes55.40%
ActualBTS No0-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium54/100
24-02-26England - Championship

Swansea vs Preston

1X2
PredictedHome51.11%
ActualDraw1-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh76/100
24-02-26England - Championship

Middlesbrough vs Leicester

1X2
PredictedHome57.78%
ActualDraw1-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh85/100
Showing 441-450 of 551 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.