MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate53.47%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability62.54%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2465Lower is better
Confidence Success56.22%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate48.94%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate54.98%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate54.68%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate49.55%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6124Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2535Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2513Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate51.66%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches331Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate53.47%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability62.54%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success56.22%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 221-230 of 331 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
16-03-26England - ChampionshipPortsmouth vs DerbyO/U 2.5
Under 2.559.30%
Under 2.50-1
HITMedium47/100
16-03-26England - Premier LeagueBrentford vs Wolves1X2
Home58.69%
Draw2-2
MISSHigh84/100
16-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionVallecano vs Levante1X2
Home52.26%
Draw1-1
MISSHigh76/100
16-03-26Italy - Serie ACremonese vs Fiorentina1X2
Away51.97%
Away1-4
HITHigh74/100
15-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1Stuttgart vs RB LeipzigO/U 2.5
Over 2.566.69%
Under 2.51-0
MISSMedium60/100
15-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1Freiburg vs Union Berlin1X2
Home57.56%
Away0-1
MISSHigh81/100
15-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1Werder Bremen vs MainzBTS
BTS Yes56.58%
BTS No0-2
MISSLow25/100
15-03-26Portugal - Liga IPorto vs Moreirense1X2
Home83.62%
Home3-0
HITHigh89/100
15-03-26Portugal - Liga IRio Ave vs EstrelaBTS
BTS No63.02%
BTS Yes2-1
MISSMedium68/100
15-03-26Portugal - Liga INacional vs EstorilBTS
BTS Yes62.77%
BTS No0-1
MISSLow25/100
16-03-26England - Championship

Portsmouth vs Derby

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.559.30%
ActualUnder 2.50-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceMedium47/100
16-03-26England - Premier League

Brentford vs Wolves

1X2
PredictedHome58.69%
ActualDraw2-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh84/100
16-03-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Vallecano vs Levante

1X2
PredictedHome52.26%
ActualDraw1-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh76/100
16-03-26Italy - Serie A

Cremonese vs Fiorentina

1X2
PredictedAway51.97%
ActualAway1-4
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh74/100
15-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1

Stuttgart vs RB Leipzig

O/U 2.5
PredictedOver 2.566.69%
ActualUnder 2.51-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium60/100
15-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1

Freiburg vs Union Berlin

1X2
PredictedHome57.56%
ActualAway0-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh81/100
15-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1

Werder Bremen vs Mainz

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes56.58%
ActualBTS No0-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceLow25/100
15-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Porto vs Moreirense

1X2
PredictedHome83.62%
ActualHome3-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh89/100
15-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Rio Ave vs Estrela

BTS
PredictedBTS No63.02%
ActualBTS Yes2-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium68/100
15-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Nacional vs Estoril

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes62.77%
ActualBTS No0-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceLow25/100
Showing 221-230 of 331 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.