MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2425Lower is better
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate49.55%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate57.71%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.81%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.36%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6087Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2426Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2470Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate52.63%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches551Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 191-200 of 551 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
14-03-26England - Premier LeagueSunderland vs Brighton1X2
Home41.72%
Away0-1
MISSLow43/100
14-03-26England - Premier LeagueBurnley vs Bournemouth1X2
Away59.94%
Draw0-0
MISSHigh81/100
14-03-26England - ChampionshipWest Brom vs Hull1X2
Draw43.31%
Home3-0
MISSMedium51/100
14-03-26England - ChampionshipStoke vs Watford1X2
Draw43.74%
Home3-1
MISSMedium55/100
14-03-26England - ChampionshipSheffield Weds vs Ipswich1X2
Away79.54%
Away0-2
HITHigh91/100
14-03-26England - ChampionshipNorwich vs Preston1X2
Home62.60%
Home2-0
HITHigh78/100
14-03-26England - ChampionshipMillwall vs Blackburn1X2
Home52.91%
Away1-2
MISSHigh80/100
14-03-26England - ChampionshipLeicester vs QPR1X2
Home52.25%
Away1-3
MISSHigh75/100
14-03-26England - ChampionshipBirmingham vs Sheffield United1X2
Draw32.23%
Draw1-1
HITLow22/100
14-03-26England - ChampionshipOxford vs CharltonO/U 2.5
Under 2.569.45%
Under 2.51-1
HITMedium52/100
14-03-26England - Premier League

Sunderland vs Brighton

1X2
PredictedHome41.72%
ActualAway0-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceLow43/100
14-03-26England - Premier League

Burnley vs Bournemouth

1X2
PredictedAway59.94%
ActualDraw0-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh81/100
14-03-26England - Championship

West Brom vs Hull

1X2
PredictedDraw43.31%
ActualHome3-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium51/100
14-03-26England - Championship

Stoke vs Watford

1X2
PredictedDraw43.74%
ActualHome3-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium55/100
14-03-26England - Championship

Sheffield Weds vs Ipswich

1X2
PredictedAway79.54%
ActualAway0-2
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh91/100
14-03-26England - Championship

Norwich vs Preston

1X2
PredictedHome62.60%
ActualHome2-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh78/100
14-03-26England - Championship

Millwall vs Blackburn

1X2
PredictedHome52.91%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh80/100
14-03-26England - Championship

Leicester vs QPR

1X2
PredictedHome52.25%
ActualAway1-3
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh75/100
14-03-26England - Championship

Birmingham vs Sheffield United

1X2
PredictedDraw32.23%
ActualDraw1-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow22/100
14-03-26England - Championship

Oxford vs Charlton

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.569.45%
ActualUnder 2.51-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceMedium52/100
Showing 191-200 of 551 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.