MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate53.47%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability62.54%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2465Lower is better
Confidence Success56.22%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate48.94%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate54.98%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate54.68%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate49.55%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6124Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2535Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2513Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate51.66%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches331Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate53.47%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability62.54%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success56.22%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 171-180 of 331 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
21-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueKilmarnock vs Livingston1X2
Home62.80%
Home2-0
HITHigh81/100
21-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueHearts vs Dundee1X2
Home72.21%
Home1-0
HITHigh87/100
21-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueFalkirk vs St Mirren1X2
Home62.99%
Away1-2
MISSHigh84/100
21-03-26France - Ligue 1Nice vs Paris SG1X2
Away73.19%
Away0-4
HITHigh89/100
21-03-26France - Ligue 1Auxerre vs Brest1X2
Draw43.99%
Home3-0
MISSMedium51/100
21-03-26France - Ligue 1Toulouse vs Lorient1X2
Home46.63%
Home1-0
HITMedium67/100
21-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieZwolle vs NAC Breda1X2
Home52.70%
Home2-1
HITHigh78/100
21-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieSparta Rotterdam vs Volendam1X2
Home61.40%
Home2-0
HITHigh79/100
21-03-26Netherlands - EredivisieFor Sittard vs Twente1X2
Away65.35%
Away1-2
HITHigh82/100
21-03-26England - ChampionshipSwansea vs CoventryBTS
BTS Yes58.90%
BTS No0-3
MISSMedium46/100
21-03-26Scotland - Premier League

Kilmarnock vs Livingston

1X2
PredictedHome62.80%
ActualHome2-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh81/100
21-03-26Scotland - Premier League

Hearts vs Dundee

1X2
PredictedHome72.21%
ActualHome1-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh87/100
21-03-26Scotland - Premier League

Falkirk vs St Mirren

1X2
PredictedHome62.99%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh84/100
21-03-26France - Ligue 1

Nice vs Paris SG

1X2
PredictedAway73.19%
ActualAway0-4
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh89/100
21-03-26France - Ligue 1

Auxerre vs Brest

1X2
PredictedDraw43.99%
ActualHome3-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium51/100
21-03-26France - Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Lorient

1X2
PredictedHome46.63%
ActualHome1-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceMedium67/100
21-03-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

Zwolle vs NAC Breda

1X2
PredictedHome52.70%
ActualHome2-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh78/100
21-03-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam vs Volendam

1X2
PredictedHome61.40%
ActualHome2-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh79/100
21-03-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

For Sittard vs Twente

1X2
PredictedAway65.35%
ActualAway1-2
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh82/100
21-03-26England - Championship

Swansea vs Coventry

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes58.90%
ActualBTS No0-3
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium46/100
Showing 171-180 of 331 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.