MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate53.47%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability62.54%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2465Lower is better
Confidence Success56.22%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate48.94%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate54.98%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate54.68%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate49.55%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6124Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2535Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2513Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate51.66%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches331Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate53.47%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability62.54%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success56.22%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 111-120 of 331 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
03-04-26England - ChampionshipCharlton vs Bristol CityO/U 2.5
Under 2.573.30%
Over 2.51-2
MISSMedium49/100
03-04-26England - ChampionshipBirmingham vs Blackburn1X2
Home47.88%
Away0-1
MISSMedium69/100
03-04-26England - ChampionshipMiddlesbrough vs Millwall1X2
Home45.60%
Away1-2
MISSMedium62/100
03-04-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionVallecano vs Elche1X2
Home56.55%
Home1-0
HITHigh76/100
22-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1Augsburg vs Stuttgart1X2
Away55.03%
Away2-5
HITHigh76/100
22-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1St Pauli vs FreiburgO/U 2.5
Under 2.576.58%
Over 2.51-2
MISSMedium63/100
22-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt1X2
Home46.54%
Home2-1
HITHigh74/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga ISp Braga vs Porto1X2
Away50.02%
Away1-2
HITHigh75/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga IAlverca vs Sp Lisbon1X2
Away84.27%
Away1-4
HITHigh88/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga IEstoril vs Rio Ave1X2
Home61.02%
Away1-2
MISSHigh81/100
03-04-26England - Championship

Charlton vs Bristol City

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.573.30%
ActualOver 2.51-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium49/100
03-04-26England - Championship

Birmingham vs Blackburn

1X2
PredictedHome47.88%
ActualAway0-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium69/100
03-04-26England - Championship

Middlesbrough vs Millwall

1X2
PredictedHome45.60%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium62/100
03-04-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Vallecano vs Elche

1X2
PredictedHome56.55%
ActualHome1-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh76/100
22-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1

Augsburg vs Stuttgart

1X2
PredictedAway55.03%
ActualAway2-5
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh76/100
22-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1

St Pauli vs Freiburg

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.576.58%
ActualOver 2.51-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium63/100
22-03-26Germany - Bundesliga 1

Mainz vs Ein Frankfurt

1X2
PredictedHome46.54%
ActualHome2-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh74/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Sp Braga vs Porto

1X2
PredictedAway50.02%
ActualAway1-2
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh75/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Alverca vs Sp Lisbon

1X2
PredictedAway84.27%
ActualAway1-4
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh88/100
22-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Estoril vs Rio Ave

1X2
PredictedHome61.02%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh81/100
Showing 111-120 of 331 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.