MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2425Lower is better
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate49.55%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate57.71%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.81%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.36%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6087Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2426Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2470Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate52.63%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches551Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 541-550 of 551 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
21-02-26England - Premier LeagueAston Villa vs Leeds1X2
Home72.31%
Draw1-1
MISSHigh85/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipWrexham vs IpswichBTS
BTS Yes62.76%
BTS Yes5-3
HITHigh74/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipWatford vs Derby1X2
Draw41.00%
Home2-0
MISSMedium45/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipSouthampton vs Charlton1X2
Home65.85%
Draw1-1
MISSHigh81/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipNorwich vs Birmingham1X2
Home57.21%
Away1-2
MISSHigh79/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipMillwall vs Portsmouth1X2
Home60.42%
Away1-3
MISSHigh81/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipMiddlesbrough vs Oxford1X2
Home71.52%
Draw0-0
MISSHigh89/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipWest Brom vs Coventry1X2
Draw42.65%
Away0-2
MISSMedium55/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipSwansea vs Bristol City1X2
Home49.73%
Home1-0
HITHigh77/100
21-02-26England - ChampionshipStoke vs LeicesterO/U 2.5
Under 2.561.53%
Over 2.52-2
MISSLow30/100
21-02-26England - Premier League

Aston Villa vs Leeds

1X2
PredictedHome72.31%
ActualDraw1-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh85/100
21-02-26England - Championship

Wrexham vs Ipswich

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes62.76%
ActualBTS Yes5-3
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh74/100
21-02-26England - Championship

Watford vs Derby

1X2
PredictedDraw41.00%
ActualHome2-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium45/100
21-02-26England - Championship

Southampton vs Charlton

1X2
PredictedHome65.85%
ActualDraw1-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh81/100
21-02-26England - Championship

Norwich vs Birmingham

1X2
PredictedHome57.21%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh79/100
21-02-26England - Championship

Millwall vs Portsmouth

1X2
PredictedHome60.42%
ActualAway1-3
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh81/100
21-02-26England - Championship

Middlesbrough vs Oxford

1X2
PredictedHome71.52%
ActualDraw0-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh89/100
21-02-26England - Championship

West Brom vs Coventry

1X2
PredictedDraw42.65%
ActualAway0-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium55/100
21-02-26England - Championship

Swansea vs Bristol City

1X2
PredictedHome49.73%
ActualHome1-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh77/100
21-02-26England - Championship

Stoke vs Leicester

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.561.53%
ActualOver 2.52-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceLow30/100
Showing 541-550 of 551 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.