MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2425Lower is better
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate49.55%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate57.71%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.81%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.36%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6087Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2426Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2470Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate52.63%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches551Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 381-390 of 551 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
28-02-26Portugal - Liga IGuimaraes vs Alverca1X2
Home62.20%
Draw1-1
MISSHigh77/100
28-02-26Portugal - Liga INacional vs Sp Braga1X2
Away75.26%
Away1-2
HITHigh89/100
28-02-26Portugal - Liga IAVS vs EstrelaO/U 2.5
Under 2.574.61%
Under 2.50-0
HITMedium60/100
28-02-26Netherlands - EredivisieNijmegen vs For Sittard1X2
Home69.38%
Away2-3
MISSHigh85/100
28-02-26Netherlands - EredivisieHeracles vs PSV Eindhoven1X2
Away91.53%
Away1-3
HITHigh92/100
28-02-26Netherlands - EredivisieHeerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam1X2
Away45.14%
Home2-1
MISSMedium65/100
28-02-26Scotland - Premier LeagueMotherwell vs Dundee United1X2
Home55.39%
Home2-0
HITHigh83/100
28-02-26Scotland - Premier LeagueLivingston vs St MirrenO/U 2.5
Under 2.558.74%
Under 2.51-1
HITLow40/100
28-02-26Scotland - Premier LeagueHearts vs Aberdeen1X2
Home74.83%
Home1-0
HITHigh87/100
28-02-26Scotland - Premier LeagueFalkirk vs Kilmarnock1X2
Home63.12%
Home5-1
HITHigh80/100
28-02-26Portugal - Liga I

Guimaraes vs Alverca

1X2
PredictedHome62.20%
ActualDraw1-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh77/100
28-02-26Portugal - Liga I

Nacional vs Sp Braga

1X2
PredictedAway75.26%
ActualAway1-2
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh89/100
28-02-26Portugal - Liga I

AVS vs Estrela

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.574.61%
ActualUnder 2.50-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceMedium60/100
28-02-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

Nijmegen vs For Sittard

1X2
PredictedHome69.38%
ActualAway2-3
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh85/100
28-02-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

Heracles vs PSV Eindhoven

1X2
PredictedAway91.53%
ActualAway1-3
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh92/100
28-02-26Netherlands - Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs Sparta Rotterdam

1X2
PredictedAway45.14%
ActualHome2-1
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium65/100
28-02-26Scotland - Premier League

Motherwell vs Dundee United

1X2
PredictedHome55.39%
ActualHome2-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh83/100
28-02-26Scotland - Premier League

Livingston vs St Mirren

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.558.74%
ActualUnder 2.51-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow40/100
28-02-26Scotland - Premier League

Hearts vs Aberdeen

1X2
PredictedHome74.83%
ActualHome1-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh87/100
28-02-26Scotland - Premier League

Falkirk vs Kilmarnock

1X2
PredictedHome63.12%
ActualHome5-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh80/100
Showing 381-390 of 551 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.