MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2425Lower is better
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate49.55%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate57.71%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate56.81%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate51.36%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6087Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2426Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2470Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate52.63%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches551Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate56.26%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability63.06%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success58.62%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 371-380 of 551 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
01-03-26France - Ligue 1Lille vs Nantes1X2
Home68.65%
Home1-0
HITHigh86/100
01-03-26France - Ligue 1Paris FC vs Nice1X2
Away49.50%
Home1-0
MISSHigh72/100
01-03-26England - Premier LeagueArsenal vs Chelsea1X2
Home61.38%
Home2-1
HITHigh78/100
01-03-26England - Premier LeagueMan United vs Crystal Palace1X2
Home50.63%
Home2-1
HITHigh75/100
01-03-26England - Premier LeagueFulham vs TottenhamBTS
BTS Yes60.21%
BTS Yes2-1
HITLow15/100
01-03-26England - Premier LeagueBrighton vs Nott'm Forest1X2
Home48.70%
Home2-1
HITHigh73/100
28-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionOviedo vs Ath MadridBTS
BTS No68.23%
BTS No0-1
HITHigh81/100
28-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionMallorca vs SociedadO/U 2.5
Under 2.566.32%
Under 2.50-1
HITLow31/100
28-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionBarcelona vs Villarreal1X2
Home79.42%
Home4-1
HITHigh86/100
28-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera DivisionVallecano vs Ath BilbaoO/U 2.5
Under 2.563.55%
Under 2.51-1
HITMedium55/100
01-03-26France - Ligue 1

Lille vs Nantes

1X2
PredictedHome68.65%
ActualHome1-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh86/100
01-03-26France - Ligue 1

Paris FC vs Nice

1X2
PredictedAway49.50%
ActualHome1-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh72/100
01-03-26England - Premier League

Arsenal vs Chelsea

1X2
PredictedHome61.38%
ActualHome2-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh78/100
01-03-26England - Premier League

Man United vs Crystal Palace

1X2
PredictedHome50.63%
ActualHome2-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh75/100
01-03-26England - Premier League

Fulham vs Tottenham

BTS
PredictedBTS Yes60.21%
ActualBTS Yes2-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow15/100
01-03-26England - Premier League

Brighton vs Nott'm Forest

1X2
PredictedHome48.70%
ActualHome2-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh73/100
28-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Oviedo vs Ath Madrid

BTS
PredictedBTS No68.23%
ActualBTS No0-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh81/100
28-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Mallorca vs Sociedad

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.566.32%
ActualUnder 2.50-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow31/100
28-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Barcelona vs Villarreal

1X2
PredictedHome79.42%
ActualHome4-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh86/100
28-02-26Spain - La Liga Primera Division

Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.563.55%
ActualUnder 2.51-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceMedium55/100
Showing 371-380 of 551 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.