MatchProb Analytics

MatchProb

Football match probabilities, team-form indicators, and scoring trend context in one structured dashboard.

Structured around probability, scoring conditions, and prior recorded results.

Pre-match probabilities Form and scoring context Backtested validation

Statistical Match Probabilities

Structured Home/Draw/Away, goal, and scoring-likelihood outputs with transparent presentation.

Team Form & Scoring Trends

Recent performance context is displayed alongside league goal environment indicators.

Historical Validation

Stored backtest examples and summary metrics keep the live view grounded in recorded model performance.

Clear Data-Driven Insights

A practical pre-match analytics workflow built for clarity and fast interpretation.

MatchProb Predictor

Select a competition and team pairing to generate a structured pre-match probability view with scoring context and recent performance cues.

Active Team PoolUnavailableSelect a league first
Teams AvailableUnavailableSelect a league first
Coverage ThroughUnavailableSelect a league first
Data RefreshedUnavailableSelect a league first

Historical performance

Results

Historical results across Top Pick and the main match markets.

Top Pick highlights the model's clearest supported angle in each historical example.

Use these results as a guide to how the model has performed across prior recorded forecasts. Probability Accuracy shows how closely forecast probabilities matched outcomes. Lower is better.

Top Pick

Top Pick Hit Rate53.47%Strongest supported match angle
Top Pick Avg Probability62.54%Average selected pick probability
Top Pick Probability Accuracy0.2465Lower is better
Confidence Success56.22%High-confidence Top Picks

Core Markets

1X2 Hit Rate48.94%Match result hit rate
O/U 2.5 Hit Rate54.98%Over/under market hit rate
BTS Market Hit Rate54.68%Both-teams-to-score market hit rate
Over 2.5 Actual Rate49.55%Share of matches finishing over 2.5

Accuracy

1X2 Probability Accuracy0.6124Lower is better
Over 2.5 Probability Accuracy0.2535Lower is better
BTS Probability Accuracy0.2513Lower is better
BTS Actual Rate51.66%Share of matches with both teams scoring

Results Filters

Top Pick metrics for the current filtered historical examples.

Matches331Historical examples in scope
Top Pick Hit Rate53.47%Selected Top Pick rows
Top Pick Avg Probability62.54%Average selected pick probability
Confidence Success56.22%High-confidence Top Picks

Historical Examples

Recent Backtested Examples

Historical examples of the model's strongest selected angle for each match.

Showing 271-280 of 331 examples.

DateCompetitionMatchMarketPredictedActualResultConfidence
14-03-26Portugal - Liga IArouca vs Benfica1X2
Away87.33%
Away1-2
HITHigh91/100
14-03-26Portugal - Liga IGil Vicente vs Alverca1X2
Home58.33%
Draw2-2
MISSHigh79/100
14-03-26Portugal - Liga IGuimaraes vs Famalicao1X2
Home47.95%
Away1-2
MISSMedium69/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueKilmarnock vs Hearts1X2
Away50.12%
Home1-0
MISSHigh77/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueHibernian vs Livingston1X2
Home79.52%
Draw0-0
MISSHigh89/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueCeltic vs Motherwell1X2
Home83.16%
Home3-1
HITHigh85/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier LeagueAberdeen vs FalkirkO/U 2.5
Under 2.560.29%
Under 2.51-1
HITLow27/100
14-03-26Belgium - Jupiler LeagueWesterlo vs Club Brugge1X2
Away69.35%
Away1-2
HITHigh84/100
14-03-26Belgium - Jupiler LeagueSt. Gilloise vs Dender1X2
Home88.38%
Home2-0
HITHigh89/100
14-03-26Belgium - Jupiler LeagueCharleroi vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven1X2
Home54.33%
Away0-2
MISSHigh77/100
14-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Arouca vs Benfica

1X2
PredictedAway87.33%
ActualAway1-2
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh91/100
14-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Gil Vicente vs Alverca

1X2
PredictedHome58.33%
ActualDraw2-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh79/100
14-03-26Portugal - Liga I

Guimaraes vs Famalicao

1X2
PredictedHome47.95%
ActualAway1-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceMedium69/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier League

Kilmarnock vs Hearts

1X2
PredictedAway50.12%
ActualHome1-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh77/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier League

Hibernian vs Livingston

1X2
PredictedHome79.52%
ActualDraw0-0
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh89/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier League

Celtic vs Motherwell

1X2
PredictedHome83.16%
ActualHome3-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh85/100
14-03-26Scotland - Premier League

Aberdeen vs Falkirk

O/U 2.5
PredictedUnder 2.560.29%
ActualUnder 2.51-1
ResultHIT
ConfidenceLow27/100
14-03-26Belgium - Jupiler League

Westerlo vs Club Brugge

1X2
PredictedAway69.35%
ActualAway1-2
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh84/100
14-03-26Belgium - Jupiler League

St. Gilloise vs Dender

1X2
PredictedHome88.38%
ActualHome2-0
ResultHIT
ConfidenceHigh89/100
14-03-26Belgium - Jupiler League

Charleroi vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven

1X2
PredictedHome54.33%
ActualAway0-2
ResultMISS
ConfidenceHigh77/100
Showing 271-280 of 331 examples
10 rows per page

Interpretation Guidance

Match probabilities describe estimated likelihood ranges, not fixed outcomes. Treat forecasts as context and combine them with your own match analysis.